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Pricing a film before anyone has seen it

Co-founded venture applying a real options framework to film finance.

Venture2026
Role
Co-founder
Framework
Arundel-style real options
Primary research
15+ conversations

The idea

Film finance is a portfolio of options, not a portfolio of assets. A studio buying a slate is buying the right to proceed, not an obligation, which is exactly the structure the Arundel case describes. We built the model on that framing.

What changed it

More than fifteen conversations with producers and filmmakers reshaped the core assumption. Decisions in the industry are emotionally driven rather than purely financial, and a model that assumes a rational buyer will misprice consistently in the same direction.

That is now built into how the model treats the market rather than treated as noise around a rational baseline.

Where it stands

The framing survived contact with the people who actually make these decisions, which the first version of the financial logic did not. That asymmetry is the most useful thing the primary research produced.

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