Markets · Academic Trading Simulation, Imperial
Five weeks, a hundred million notional, and five asset classes that stop behaving independently at exactly the moment you need them to.
Photo Anne Nygård / Unsplash
Single-name semiconductor and storage equity in Micron, AMD and Seagate. WTI crude. Nasdaq index futures as the beta overlay. Mexican peso as the emerging market FX expression. CDX as the credit leg.
Five very different instruments, which is the point. A book that is long semis, long crude and short credit protection is not diversified. It is one macro view expressed three times, and it finds that out on a single afternoon.
The same year, IMC Prosperity 4: second globally in manual trading with team ROARINGLIONS, and top 6.5% overall of 18,803 teams. And the Natixis Students Investment Challenge with the Green Folio fund, on a 9.4% return against a 1.8% benchmark, a Sharpe of 2.04 and beta of 0.35.
The Natixis numbers are the ones worth pointing at. A beta of 0.35 alongside that return means the result did not come from taking more market risk than the benchmark.
A trading simulation is not a track record. It removes the two hardest constraints in the real thing, which are capacity and the cost of being wrong with someone else's money.